background-image: url("images/blue.jpg") background-size: cover class: inverse <br><br><br><br> ## Spatial Patterns of Electric Vehicle<br>Accessibility in the United States **.white[John Paul Helveston]**, George Washington University<br> Lujin Zhao, George Washington University<br> Michael Mann, George Washington University<br> August 06, 2025 --- class: middle, center ## Addressing the **“innovation-needs paradox”**: ## The people most likely to benefit from a technology<br>are often the last ones to adopt it. --- class: center background-color: #fff ### .center[**Data**: 105M vehicle listings from ~60k dealerships (marketcheck.com)<br>(2016 - 2024, inclusive)] #### New Vehicles <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Type </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> CV </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> HEV </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> PHEV </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BEV </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Car </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 13,927,982 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 885,351 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 132,823 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 354,163 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> SUV </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 28,005,232 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,101,007 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 182,339 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 852,760 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> #### Used Vehicles <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Type </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> CV </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> HEV </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> PHEV </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> BEV </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Car </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 27,533,922 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,401,286 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 212,627 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 553,778 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> SUV </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 29,172,845 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 434,992 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 17,010 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 236,402 </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> --- class: inverse, middle, center # How many dealerships are carrying PEVs? --- class: center ## **4/5** dealers have _new_ BEV; **2/5** dealers have _used_ BEV <center> <img src="images/pev-percent-dealers.png" width=95%> </center> --- class: center ## PEVs still a small % of overall listings (7% new, 4% used) <center> <img src="images/pev-percent-listings.png" width=95%> </center> --- class: center ## PEV affordability still a major challenge<br>**Majority of growth in high-price segments** <center> <img src="images/pev_percent_listings_price_bin.png" width=100%> </center> --- class: inverse, middle, center # How hard is it to get to a PEV dealer? --- background-color: #fff ### **Vehicle accessibility metric**:<br>Road travel time from census tract centroid to<br>nearest dealership with a target vehicle <center> <img src="images/pev-access-diagram.png" width=100%> </center> *Road travel times obtained using Open Source Routing Machine (OSRM) --- class: middle .leftcol65[ <center> <img src="images/travel_time_pev_cv_cfp.png" width=100%> </center> ] .rightcol35[ ## PEV travel times are converging towards conventional vehicle times 80% of pop: - CV in ~12 min - PEV in ~22 min (2024) - PEV in ~60 min (2016) ] --- class: middle .leftcol65[ <center> <img src="images/cfp_grid.png" width=100%> </center> ] .rightcol35[ ### Additional travel times (PEV - CV) by demographic blocks shows disparities Places with worse PEV access: - Lower income areas - Rural areas - Republican strongholds ] --- class: middle, center background-color: #fff .leftcol70[ <center> <img src="images/pev-access-time-map.png" width=100%> </center> ] .rightcol30[ ### “PEV Deserts” exist in some areas, particularly in <$20,000 price range ] --- class: middle, center background-color: #fff ## **Key Finding**: EV accessibility is spatially concentrated ### Transportation electrification will be **geographically clustered** rather than evenly distributed <center><img src="images/urban-vs-rural.png" width=60%></center> --- ## .center[Grid planning must account for<br>**uneven adoption patterns**] .center[Leveraging vehicle _listings_ can be useful for high-resolution planning] .leftcol[ .center[**Concentrated demand**] - Urban, higher-income areas - Requires targeted grid investments - Peak demand challenges ] .rightcol[ .center[**Missed opportunities**] - Rural wind resources underutilized - Limited distributed load balancing - Reduced renewable integration potential ] --- ## .center[**Affordability gap** limits mass-market electrification] ### - Only **1.3%** of new vehicles under $40k are EVs ### - **94%** of used market is under $40k with minimal EV options <center><img src="images/used-new-evs.png" width=65%></center> --- ## .center[**Dealerships matter** for the energy transition] ### - Direct experience increases willingness to adopt<br>.gray[(Roberson & Helveston, 2020; Agrawal et al., 2022)] ### - Geographic barriers limit consumer exposure .leftcol55[ - 60+ minute travel penalties in rural areas - Abundant conventional options nearby - Limited EV education opportunities ] .rightcol45[ <center><img src="images/road.png" width=100%></center> ] --- class: inverse background-image: url("images/blue.jpg") background-size: cover <br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br> # Thanks! ### Slides: ### https://jhelvy.github.io/2025-btr7-ev-spatial/ .footer-large[.white[.right[ @jhelvy.bsky.social <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 576 512" style="height:1em;width:1.12em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:white;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M407.8 294.7c-3.3-.4-6.7-.8-10-1.3c3.4 .4 6.7 .9 10 1.3zM288 227.1C261.9 176.4 190.9 81.9 124.9 35.3C61.6-9.4 37.5-1.7 21.6 5.5C3.3 13.8 0 41.9 0 58.4S9.1 194 15 213.9c19.5 65.7 89.1 87.9 153.2 80.7c3.3-.5 6.6-.9 10-1.4c-3.3 .5-6.6 1-10 1.4C74.3 308.6-9.1 342.8 100.3 464.5C220.6 589.1 265.1 437.8 288 361.1c22.9 76.7 49.2 222.5 185.6 103.4c102.4-103.4 28.1-156-65.8-169.9c-3.3-.4-6.7-.8-10-1.3c3.4 .4 6.7 .9 10 1.3c64.1 7.1 133.6-15.1 153.2-80.7C566.9 194 576 75 576 58.4s-3.3-44.7-21.6-52.9c-15.8-7.1-40-14.9-103.2 29.8C385.1 81.9 314.1 176.4 288 227.1z"/></svg><br> @jhelvy <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 496 512" style="height:1em;width:0.97em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:white;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M165.9 397.4c0 2-2.3 3.6-5.2 3.6-3.3.3-5.6-1.3-5.6-3.6 0-2 2.3-3.6 5.2-3.6 3-.3 5.6 1.3 5.6 3.6zm-31.1-4.5c-.7 2 1.3 4.3 4.3 4.9 2.6 1 5.6 0 6.2-2s-1.3-4.3-4.3-5.2c-2.6-.7-5.5.3-6.2 2.3zm44.2-1.7c-2.9.7-4.9 2.6-4.6 4.9.3 2 2.9 3.3 5.9 2.6 2.9-.7 4.9-2.6 4.6-4.6-.3-1.9-3-3.2-5.9-2.9zM244.8 8C106.1 8 0 113.3 0 252c0 110.9 69.8 205.8 169.5 239.2 12.8 2.3 17.3-5.6 17.3-12.1 0-6.2-.3-40.4-.3-61.4 0 0-70 15-84.7-29.8 0 0-11.4-29.1-27.8-36.6 0 0-22.9-15.7 1.6-15.4 0 0 24.9 2 38.6 25.8 21.9 38.6 58.6 27.5 72.9 20.9 2.3-16 8.8-27.1 16-33.7-55.9-6.2-112.3-14.3-112.3-110.5 0-27.5 7.6-41.3 23.6-58.9-2.6-6.5-11.1-33.3 2.6-67.9 20.9-6.5 69 27 69 27 20-5.6 41.5-8.5 62.8-8.5s42.8 2.9 62.8 8.5c0 0 48.1-33.6 69-27 13.7 34.7 5.2 61.4 2.6 67.9 16 17.7 25.8 31.5 25.8 58.9 0 96.5-58.9 104.2-114.8 110.5 9.2 7.9 17 22.9 17 46.4 0 33.7-.3 75.4-.3 83.6 0 6.5 4.6 14.4 17.3 12.1C428.2 457.8 496 362.9 496 252 496 113.3 383.5 8 244.8 8zM97.2 352.9c-1.3 1-1 3.3.7 5.2 1.6 1.6 3.9 2.3 5.2 1 1.3-1 1-3.3-.7-5.2-1.6-1.6-3.9-2.3-5.2-1zm-10.8-8.1c-.7 1.3.3 2.9 2.3 3.9 1.6 1 3.6.7 4.3-.7.7-1.3-.3-2.9-2.3-3.9-2-.6-3.6-.3-4.3.7zm32.4 35.6c-1.6 1.3-1 4.3 1.3 6.2 2.3 2.3 5.2 2.6 6.5 1 1.3-1.3.7-4.3-1.3-6.2-2.2-2.3-5.2-2.6-6.5-1zm-11.4-14.7c-1.6 1-1.6 3.6 0 5.9 1.6 2.3 4.3 3.3 5.6 2.3 1.6-1.3 1.6-3.9 0-6.2-1.4-2.3-4-3.3-5.6-2z"/></svg><br> jhelvy.com <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 640 512" style="height:1em;width:1.25em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:white;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M579.8 267.7c56.5-56.5 56.5-148 0-204.5c-50-50-128.8-56.5-186.3-15.4l-1.6 1.1c-14.4 10.3-17.7 30.3-7.4 44.6s30.3 17.7 44.6 7.4l1.6-1.1c32.1-22.9 76-19.3 103.8 8.6c31.5 31.5 31.5 82.5 0 114L422.3 334.8c-31.5 31.5-82.5 31.5-114 0c-27.9-27.9-31.5-71.8-8.6-103.8l1.1-1.6c10.3-14.4 6.9-34.4-7.4-44.6s-34.4-6.9-44.6 7.4l-1.1 1.6C206.5 251.2 213 330 263 380c56.5 56.5 148 56.5 204.5 0L579.8 267.7zM60.2 244.3c-56.5 56.5-56.5 148 0 204.5c50 50 128.8 56.5 186.3 15.4l1.6-1.1c14.4-10.3 17.7-30.3 7.4-44.6s-30.3-17.7-44.6-7.4l-1.6 1.1c-32.1 22.9-76 19.3-103.8-8.6C74 372 74 321 105.5 289.5L217.7 177.2c31.5-31.5 82.5-31.5 114 0c27.9 27.9 31.5 71.8 8.6 103.9l-1.1 1.6c-10.3 14.4-6.9 34.4 7.4 44.6s34.4 6.9 44.6-7.4l1.1-1.6C433.5 260.8 427 182 377 132c-56.5-56.5-148-56.5-204.5 0L60.2 244.3z"/></svg><br> jph@gwu.edu <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:white;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M16.1 260.2c-22.6 12.9-20.5 47.3 3.6 57.3L160 376V479.3c0 18.1 14.6 32.7 32.7 32.7c9.7 0 18.9-4.3 25.1-11.8l62-74.3 123.9 51.6c18.9 7.9 40.8-4.5 43.9-24.7l64-416c1.9-12.1-3.4-24.3-13.5-31.2s-23.3-7.5-34-1.4l-448 256zm52.1 25.5L409.7 90.6 190.1 336l1.2 1L68.2 285.7zM403.3 425.4L236.7 355.9 450.8 116.6 403.3 425.4z"/></svg> ]]] --- class: inverse, middle, center # Extra Slides --- ## .center[**Policy coordination** needed for equitable transition] <br> ### .center[Current patterns reinforce existing inequalities] .leftcol[ .center[**Expand access**] - Direct-to-consumer sales - Rural dealership incentives - Charging infrastructure investment ] .rightcol[ .center[**System benefits**] - More distributed demand - Better renewable integration - Grid stability support ]